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Astronomers just identified a big ugly asteroid with a projected 72% chance of smacking Earth silly in 2038. What can be done about it? That’s the question NASA tangled with in a thought experiment. The hypothetical doomsday space rock simulation “was the fifth installment of the Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.” Every so often, all the honchos from our government agencies team up with NASA and their international counterparts to plan for major catastrophes.
Incoming doomsday asteroid
When the experts set out to simulate a projected asteroid impact, they wanted to make things as realistic as possible. That’s why this year’s Interagency Tabletop Exercise tapped into the things we learned from 2022’s DART mission. One of the great things about real life is that nothing is an absolute certainty.
There’s a range of possibilities for every single parameter from size of the rock and it’s speed, to the angle of approach and trajectory.
According to the scenario, NASA had discovered an asteroid “that had a 72% chance of hitting Earth in 14 years’ time.”
#NASA NASA, FEMA, and the planetary defense community recently participated in the 5th Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise to assess the nation's readiness against potentially hazardous asteroids or comets. The exercise simulated a hypothetic… https://t.co/PmiENusWME
— Earthverse (@janirube) June 20, 2024
They considered a variety of sizes from 60 to 800 meters in their planning. The gathered experts soon noticed their data suggested one between 100 and 320 meters is the most likely threat the human race can expect.
“The uncertainties in these initial conditions for the exercise allowed participants to consider a particularly challenging set of circumstances,” Lindley Johnson relates. He’s planetary defense officer emeritus at NASA Headquarters in Washington.
Impact from a large asteroid “is potentially the only natural disaster humanity has the technology to predict years in advance and take action to prevent.” That doesn’t mean we have all the bugs worked out.
Several strategies considered
The experts managed to come up with several different strategies to address the incoming asteroid threat. They spent days kicking around the pros and cons of each of them, as they crunched the numbers and ran data through models.
In the end, “senior figures” preferred “a U.S. government-led approach with international assistance and a potential fly-by rendezvous effort” over waiting “for sightings with a telescope.”
Figuring these things out ahead of time is crucial. Trying to do it when time is of the essence could lead to a mistake that’s fatal to the entire human race.
LIVE: We're discussing the results of our latest biennial tabletop exercise to simulate responses to a hypothetical asteroid impact threat. Tune in for more info on our findings and recommendations: https://t.co/cfGgS5d9yr
— NASA (@NASA) June 20, 2024
“These outcomes will help to shape future exercises and studies to ensure NASA and other government agencies continue improving planetary defense preparedness.” Some say the best way to prepare for an asteroid impact is to kiss your rear goodbye.
The exercise was intended to increase “readiness for the potential threat of an asteroid.” It’s not clear if we’re any readier now than we were before but it was an interesting experiment. It served as “a vehicle for discussion between agencies and potential international partners.”
One thing we learned from the Double Asteroid Redirection Test is that they can be deflected, if we can get there in time and hit it with a big enough mass.
