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The January 6 Select Committee has been pushing a lot of conjecture and uncorroborated stories up to this point.
Not a single shred of what it has produced would hold up against criminal charges, which is why none have been filed.
That changed this week.
Problems Lie Ahead
The committee now has evidence that someone from the Trump campaign tried to deliver fake electors to Mike Pence on the day the Senate certified the election.
The operative, Mike Roman, was the Director of Election Day Operations at the time.
The problem for Trump is that it matters little if he had direct knowledge of it or not.
The only difference is whether he will face direct charges.
The fact that Trump publicly pushed Pence so hard at the time, however, is not going to play well for him.
Chairman Thompson, in supporting the subpoena, stated, “[T]he Select Committee is in possession of communications reflecting your involvement in a coordinated strategy to contact Republican members of state legislatures in certain states that former President Trump had lost and urge them to ‘reclaim’ their authority by sending an alternate slate of electors that would support former President Trump.”
Trump has slowly but surely been going backward in overall support.
But, here is the problem as I see it…
Barring charges being filed against him successfully, Trump will probably run and win the nomination.
Most serious candidates will not even think about running against him and if Trump is running, he has enough core support to win the nomination easily.
The problem lies in the general election.
If you look at recent polling, Trump, at best, is only three or four points ahead of Biden, who has an approval rating of less than 40 percent!
That leaves Trump no margin for error if Biden gets any momentum, which is why many Democrats want to see Trump run.
Honestly, Trump is probably the only person that Biden can beat at this point solely because tens of millions of voters will NEVER vote for Donald Trump regardless of how badly Biden is doing.
When you add in moderate voters that this committee could sway, even if Trump wins, it will be a nail-biter.
Now, Trump could easily dominate electoral votes and still look like it was a convincing win, but every battleground state will likely have us all sitting on the edge of our seats on election night.
Even in that case, however, Trump is likely to lose the popular vote by millions, which means four more years of Democrats sounding off about the electoral college.
We need a blowout, plain and simple, meaning we need to convincingly win the electoral college and win the popular vote.
Trump should probably step back and allow Ron DeSantis to take the lead just to be safe.
Otherwise, the unthinkable could happen… Trump runs and loses again to Joe Biden, at which point we deal with rigged elections allegations and those that do not buy into that will despise Trump and every candidate he supports.
Is Trump willing to risk that to save his ego or does he do the right thing and play kingmaker to the next generation?
I have a feeling we are going to find out sooner rather than later.
